Early Evidence of Roose Bolton’s Treachery

Introduction

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I’m in the middle of another re-read of the series, and I finished A Game of Thrones about a week ago. In this re-read, I’m giving special attention to a few plot points. One of those plot-points is Roose Bolton and when he turned against Robb Stark. In popular telling, Roose Bolton turned against Robb Stark when he determined that the Stark cause was lost after the Lannister victory against Stannis Baratheon at King’s Landing. However, after re-reading the first book, I think the evidence of betrayal goes farther back in the timeline than originally thought.

Now, before I jump too far into this post, I want to make a disclaimer. I don’t think that Roose Bolton was a Lannister stooge from the get-go. I think that Roose’s turn to the Lannister side occurred around the end of A Clash of Kings. Prior to that, Roose was as much an enemy to the Lannisters as he was a traitor to the Starks as we’ll see below. That said, I believe that Roose Bolton was never loyal to Robb Stark, and he actively worked to further his and his family’s ambition from the start at the expense of the Starks.


A History of Animosity

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When Robb Stark called his banners after his father was imprisoned by Cersei Lannister in King’s Landing, Roose Bolton answered the call. But I doubt he did so out of any particular loyalty or love for the Starks. The Boltons were historical antagonists to the Starks. The two houses, Stark and Bolton, warred against each other for political dominance in the North. Though the Starks were the historical kings-in-the-north, the Boltons often rose in rebellion against the Starks, sometimes using cadet branches of House Stark in their rebellions.

The Greystarks had lasted the longest, holding the Wolf’s Den for five centuries, until they presumed to join the Dreadfort in rebellion against the Starks of Winterfell. (ADWD, Davos IV)

One of the more famous examples happened some centuries before the start of the events of the books.

“Centuries ago, House Bolton rose up against the King in the North, and Harlon Stark laid siege to the Dreadfort. It took him two years to starve them out.” (ADWD, Jon IV)

This likely was the last open rebellion by the Boltons against the Starks in pre-book history. The Boltons finally bent the knee to the Starks and seemingly served as loyal bannermen. But this history was not forgotten in the North, and I think it’s likely that Roose Bolton was well-aware of the bad blood between his family and the Starks.


Undermining Eddard Stark

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Fifteen years before the start of A Game of Thrones, Roose Bolton stood alongside of Robert Baratheon and Eddard Stark at the Battle of the Trident. While Roose answered the call, I believe that this was an appearance of loyalty, and I think that Roose Bolton attempted to use the events of Robert’s Rebellion to undermine the Starks.

At the conclusion of the battle, the Starks/Tullys/Baratheons/Arryns were victorious. Rhaegar Targaryen lay dead along with thousands of Targaryen loyalists. However, several prominent loyalists survived the battle. One of the most prominent was Barristan Selmy. Badly wounded in the battle, Barristan’s ultimate fate was left to Robert Baratheon and Eddard Stark. Roose Bolton was there too. He had some interesting counsel for the two victorious lords.

“On the Trident, Ser Barristan here cut down a dozen good men, Robert’s friends and mine. When they brought him to us, grievously wounded and near death, Roose Bolton urged us to cut his throat, but your brother said, ‘I will not kill a man for loyalty, nor for fighting well,’ and sent his own maester to tend Ser Barristan’s wounds.” (AGOT, Eddard IX)

I think it’s easy to see Roose’s counsel as an example of his cruelty, but I think it goes deeper than that. Roose Bolton’s advice to kill Barristan Selmy would not have been justice. More importantly, it would not have been perceived as justice throughout the realm. Consider how Tywin regarded Joffrey’s humiliation and dismissal of Barristan at the end of AGOT.

“And dismissing Selmy, where was the sense in that? Yes, the man was old, but the name of Barristan the Bold still has meaning in the realm. He lent honor to any man he served.” (AGOT, Tyrion IX)

By advising the victors of the Trident to kill Barristan Selmy, I think that Roose Bolton was attempting to undermine them. If Barristan were to be killed, he would lend dishonor to those who ordered the sword swung and the man who swung it. Eddard Stark in particular would have been de-legitimized. Had Robert and Ned followed this advice, I think it likely that Eddard would have been the one to swing the sword. Ned was loathe to let another man enforce the sentence that he passed. When Robert gave the order to have Lady killed early in AGOT, Eddard did the deed himself rather than let a headsman do the job. And Roose? He would not be the one dishonoring his blade. He would stand apart while the deed was done. And when it was done, Eddard’s reputation would take a dive throughout Westeros while Roose’s would likely remain unchanged.

Fortunately, Robert did not heed Roose’s advice. But Roose was in for the long game. If he wasn’t able to improve the standing of his family at Robert’s Rebellion, he would wait for another opportunity.


An Unfriendly Bannerman

“You cannot afford to seem indecisive in front of men like Roose Bolton and Rickard Karstark. Make no mistake, Robb—these are your bannermen, not your friends.” (AGOT, Catelyn VIII)

What Roose couldn’t accomplish during Robert’s Rebellion could be accomplished in the next generation. When Eddard Stark was imprisoned and Robb Stark called his banners in a grand rescue operation, the Dreadfort answered the call. Of course, Roose and his host didn’t join Robb Stark for noble reasons. No, Roose was there for his own reasons. The most prominent was that Roose Bolton did not want to sully his own reputation among his fellow Northern Lords. If he stayed out of the war, he would be seen as cowardly and more importantly openly-treasonous. This would reduce his standing in the North at the very least. And Roose would need broad support in the North if he were to advance the Dreadfort’s power.

But to further his own power, he needed more than Dreadfort men. He needed a command. Fortunately for him, Catelyn Stark provided him with that opportunity. As Robb Stark prepared to march south from Moat Cailin, he planned to divide his army. His cavalry would advance southwest to relieve Jaime Lannister’s Siege of Riverrun. His infantry would continue south on the Kingsroad to engage Tywin Lannister. Robb would command the march on Riverrun, but he was unsure who to give the command of his foot to. Robb initially thought that the Greatjon Umber would be command the host, but Catelyn counseled someone else, someone who would be cold, cunning and cautious.

So I don’t want someone fearless, do I?”

“No. You want cold cunning, I should think, not courage.”

“Roose Bolton,” Robb said at once. “That man scares me.”

“Then let us pray he will scare Tywin Lannister as well.” (AGOT, Catelyn VIII)

The Northern foot would march under Roose Bolton’s command. When Catelyn successfully negotiated the loyalty of House Frey, their levies were given over to Roose Bolton as well. With a major command, Roose Bolton was now the most powerful field commander next to Robb Stark. An argument could be made that Roose was more powerful than his liege lord himself. His host was numerically superior to Robb’s, having some 16,000 soldiers under his command while Robb Stark had 6,000.


A Flight of Arrows

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I’ve written extensively on the Battle of the Green Fork previously here and here. But on my latest re-read, I saw something new that I think shows evidence of Roose Bolton’s treason and overall perspective on the war.

Roose marches overnight to confront Tywin Lannister. This was an interesting move that belied Roose’s reputation as a cautious man. Roose’s only real orders were to stand athwart Tywin Lannister’s crossing the Trident or moving north towards Moat Cailin. Instead, he rushed south to give battle to the Lannisters. Why?

First, if Roose Bolton successfully defeated the Lannisters in battle, he would be hailed as a hero by his fellow Northern Lords. If he defeated Tywin Lannister, he would stand on par with Robb Stark; the glory that Roose Bolton would win would nearly be co-equal with the glory that Robb Stark won at Riverrun.

Secondly and probably more importantly, if Roose lost, the casualties suffered would be not come from the Dreadfort. Consider what banners Tyrion sees at the start of the battle.

He glimpsed the bull moose of the Hornwoods, the Karstark sunburst, Lord Cerwyn’s battle-axe, and the mailed fist of the Glovers . . . and the twin towers of Frey. (AGOT, Tyrion VIII)

Notice any banners missing? If you guessed the Flayed Man of House Bolton, you’d be correct. Roose was sending other, not-his-own men, into battle. Where would Roose’s host be? Somewhere in the rear.

Here’s my theory (and I have /u/indianthane95 to thank for turning me onto this a while back): Roose Bolton was sending loyalist Stark men to die while keeping his own men safe.

And when the battle was joined, the Dreadfort men did not cross swords with the Lannisters. They stayed in the rear, likely as a reserve. However, I don’t think that’s all that they did. On my first read and subsequent re-reads, I glossed over something potentially significant. In the middle of the battle, Tyrion observes something curious.

A flight of arrows descended on them; where they came from he could not say, but they fell on Stark and Lannister alike, rattling off armor or finding flesh. (AGOT, Tyrion VIII)

Now, who would fire arrows on friends and foes alike on the battlefield? Perhaps Tywin was cruel enough to do so, but I doubt it. Tywin needed the Mountain Clansmen to break along the east bank of the Trident so that his cavalry could envelope the Stark left flank. If arrows were being fired from the south, the clansmen would have no reason to rout — not that they did in any case, but it would go against Tywin’s nature to deviate from his battle plan.

I think that the arrows came from the North. I think the archers were Dreadfort men. My theory is that Roose Bolton ordered the arrows fired into the ranks. And I think this is indicative of Roose Bolton’s personality and outlook on the war. What’s the evidence?

Before I go into the evidence for this, let me describe the evidence against it. Tywin Lannister did have archers that were firing arrows from the Lannister right flank into the charging Northern infantry.

As the horns died away, a hissing filled the air; a vast flight of arrows arched up from his right, where the archers stood flanking the road. The northerners broke into a run, shouting as they came, but the Lannister arrows fell on them like hail, hundreds of arrows, thousands, and shouts turned to screams as men stumbled and went down. (AGOT, Tyrion VIII)

So, I do see that there is the possibility that my theory is incorrect. But here’s the evidence for Bolton friendly fire. First, he had men behind the front line to do the deed. Dreadfort men were in reserve and behind the fighting. So they had opportunity going for them. Secondly, he certainly had the means. Tyrion and his mountain clansmen were hit by arrows, killing some and wounding others. Finally, Roose had motive: he needed loyal Stark men and Lannister alike to die on the battlefield all the while preserving his own men and reputation.


Conclusion

Though Roose Bolton lost the battle, this would not be the end the end for him. The Northerners took heavy casualties in the battle. Strangely absent from the casualty list were any Dreadfort men.

“My liege, we have taken some of their commanders. Lord Cerwyn, Ser Wylis Manderly, Harrion Karstark, four Freys. Lord Hornwood is dead, and I fear Roose Bolton has escaped us.” (AGOT, Tyrion VIII)

Did Roose Bolton lose the battle intentionally? I’d like to think that he didn’t care one way or another. Any outcome for the battle would bolster Roose Bolton’s station in life. Roose had suffered a defeat, but he retained command of the surviving soldiers from the battlefield despite superseding his orders from Robb Stark. Though nominally placed under the command of Edmure Tully later on, for all intents and purposes, Roose operated independently of any real command structure. Through his efforts, he cultivated loyalty from some of his banner lords while continuing the practice of sacrificing those bannermen whose loyalty was first and foremost to the Starks.

As I said in the introduction, I don’t think that Roose Bolton was acting on Tywin Lannister’s behalf in AGOT. I think that he was furthering his own ambition. He hitched his horse to Eddard Stark’s during Robert’s Rebellion and then attempted to undermine him at the Trident. He later hitched his own ambition onto Robb Stark when he called his banners. And in his capacity as a subordinate  commander in Robb Stark’s army, he undermined Robb Stark’s legitimacy and his combat power.

Roose Bolton’s turn to the Lannisters isn’t evident until the end of A Clash of Kings. But his disloyalty to the Starks had a long history, and I believe that it is much longer than is commonly believed by the fans.

Apologies for the long post. I originally attempted to self-post this on reddit, but I ran up against 10K character limit. Feel free to comment below or in the comment section for this article on reddit. Thanks for reading!

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13 Comments

Filed under ASOIAF Analysis, ASOIAF Military Analysis, ASOIAF Political Analysis

13 responses to “Early Evidence of Roose Bolton’s Treachery

  1. Paul

    I believe you read far too much into Roose’s advice regarding Barristan. Roose, by nature, would not bother keeping prisoners. This anecdote showed how callous he is, even towards a highly regarded man such as Barristan.

    An equally plausible explanation is that Barristan killed some Dreadfort noblemen, perhaps a cousin or brother of Roose, on the Trident and and Roose wanted him dead in retribution. We know that two Umber lords died on the Trident, why should we expect that the Boltons didn’t suffer equally? We never hear of any other Bolton lords. This is my pet theory, that Roose Bolton lost a brother or cousin, in Robert’s Rebellion and thus why he has no living kin we are aware of.

    • That’s very possible as well. The other possibility that a user on reddit alerted me to was that Roose was trying to feel out his new Lord Paramount. Roose Bolton likely did not have much interaction with the second son of his liege lord. Perhaps he was trying to see what kind of man his new liege lord was. I still like the Roose/Barristan theory just because it shows Roose Bolton as cold and calculating and playing the long game, the very long game.

    • Robin Goodfellow

      You could also see it as evidence of how little regard Bolton has for loyalty – and that a treacherous man will always suspect others of treachery.

  2. zonaria

    Supposing he is not traitorous at this point, Roose’s use of his own men as a reserve at the Green Fork looks rational to me. A reserve needs to be flexible, mobile and able to respond to orders quickly. Normally an elite mobile unit would be ideal, but Roose’s army is an infantry one and seems much of a muchness in terms of quality. It seems sensible then for him to use his own men, where familiarity should reduce the risk of mis-communication on the battlefield.

    None of this *actually* stops him from having traitorous intent, of course; he can cover his backside in event of defeat by claiming a militarily rational reason for his actions.

    • I think appearance is everything for Roose Bolton. He has plausible deniability if Robb Stark questions his actions at the Green Fork. But this practice doesn’t stop at the Green Fork. In every battle that Roose fights in the War of the Five Kings, he places loyalist Stark men or dispensible men into the greatest danger.

      1. Seizure of Harrenhal: Robett Glover is intentionally sent to be taken prisoner by the Lannisters. The Brave Companions move into Harrenhal and take it from within.

      2. The Second Sack of Darry – Roose Bolton orders Ser Helman Tallhart to re-take the castle from Gregor Clegane and orders all the captives put to the sword.

      3. The Battle of Duskendale – Robett Glover and Helman Tallhart and loyalist Stark soldiers are sent on a suicide mission to Duskendale. No Dreadfort men accompany them. They die by the droves. Tallhart is killed.

      4. Battle of the Ruby Ford – Boltons, Karstarks and Freys cross safely. Norrey, Locke and Burley men left on the east side of the Trident to be slaughtered by Gregor Clegane.

      5. The Battle of Winterfell – Roose sends the Freys and Manderlys out against Stannis’ men, keeping his own Dreadfort men behind the walls of Winterfell.

      • WPA

        At a certain level- beyond long-game treasonous intent against the Starks- aren’t Bolton’s actions also very savvy “constituent services” for men sworn to the Dreadfort? For all of the Boltons’ depredations, quiet or obvious, they seem to command staunch loyalty and emulation from the thousands of “Flayed Men” soldiers directly from their lands. I’m sure their ruthless cruelty discourages disloyalty. But for Roose in particular- in minimizes the casualties of his own men throughout the War of the Five Kings, I’d imagine that would also reaffirm their loyalty to him through his apparent regard (even if for practical rather than personal reasons) for their lives. Unlike some Northern highborn, he does not throw away the lives of his direct vassals. Ironically the Dreadfort men marching south are better served by their traitorous Leech Lord than their more noble counterparts among other prominent bannermen.

        Somewhat unrelatedly, I wonder if the Bolton soldiers, presumably mostly lowborn, taking up the flaying practice is a type of traditional loyalty they hold to their ruling family. ie- a way for everyone to get on board with Team Flayed Man, or is it an added trait to discourage any outsider or other Northerner from screwing with a man with the Bolton sigil on his person?

  3. In the Ceiling

    Another interesting coincidence regarding the Battle of the Green Fork: Halys Hornwood died there, leaving his lands and wife open to pilfering by Ramsay Snow.

  4. Pingback: Chapter-by-Chapter Analysis: Tyrion VIII | Race for the Iron Throne

  5. nymeria

    What about his bastard, Ramsay? Presumably Bolton knows Ramsay’s a nasty piece of work – he is almost certainly responsible for killing Bolton’s true-born son. Not only that, but surely Bolton must have heard of Ramsay’s misdeeds in the North, culminating in his starving Lady Hornwood to dead after marrying her and taking her lands, something I doubt is going to earn much love in the North – but Bolton seems not to punish jim. Not only that, but Ramsay goes on to kill Rodrik Cassel, plus a Talbert and Cerwyn. Even after the Red Winning, this isn’t exactly a way to encourage loyalty (although perhaps the Bolton’s aren’t hoping for loyalty, just fear). Did Bolton order his bastard to do it, or was it just Ramsay’s twisted nature?

  6. First when not last

    Suppose the improbable did happen and Robb won his war. Who then would be the most powerful lord in the North if Robb were to choose to sit the Iron Throne in KL, while Winterfell is left to Catelyn and her minor children, and Roose becomes known as the soul of combatant loyalty? No matter which way the worm turns, Roose has his bases covered.

  7. James

    You’re confusing yourself. Roose is a smart guy, he was just covering all bases. He didn’t plan open betrayal until Stannis’ defeat, and the news of Robb’s marriage. Roose was always just doing what benefited himself the most. He always put his own men at the rear/away from the fighting so that he would have his own strength at near 100%. He always preferred to lose Hornwoods, Manderlys, Glovers, and Karstarks rather than his own men. He is just a smart dude who wanted to come out strong no matter what. He’s good at capitalizing on situations.

  8. Considering this perspective of Roose Bolton how would you view his strategizing against Stannis ? Roose clearly has the advantage in holding Winterfell. The other aspect of the situation in the North is the intrigues of Wyman Manderly. I think that Roose would somehow plan to preempt this. A decisive defeat of Stannis would secure his power tightly enough to withstand any of Wyman’s intrigues. Failure to do so would cost him heavily.

  9. Roose is one of my favorite characters. I think this is a great read. The only aspect I dismiss is about Ser Barristan. I have been trying to piece together just what or how Roose will gain more power. I do feel he will be satisfied with ruling the North. I think Ramsay will be his downfall, either Ramsay kills him or Roose kills ramsay and that some how back lashes.

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